[Huiconghardwarenetwork]attheendofDecember2011,allmajorstainlesssteelmanufacturersintheUnitedStatesannouncedthattheywouldincreasethebasicpriceofstainlesssteelflatsteeldeliveredinJanuary2012orreducethediscount.Europeansteelcompanieshavealsosaidtheywillcontinuetoseekpricehikesthisyearaftertheyfailedtoraisethebasepriceofstainlesssteelin2011Inthepastyear,China'seconomyhasbeeninaperiodoftransition.Duringthisperiod,inordertocurbinflation,thestatehasincreaseditssupervisionofthefinancialmarket,implementedapositivefiscalpolicyandastablemonetarypolicy,andsloweddowneconomicgrowthinaccordancewiththeobjectivesofmacro-control.Fromtheinternationalpointofview,theeconomicrecoveryhasbeendifficult,andeventheeuroareahasregressed;undertheinfluenceofmanyeconomicfactors,thepricesoftheglobalcommoditymarkethavetakenthe"rollercoaster".Insuchaneconomicenvironment,theoverallproductioncapacityofChina'sstainlesssteelindustryhasbeenreleased,whilethegrowthrateofdownstreamdemandhassloweddownsignificantly.Inaddition,influencedbyexportpolicies,unstableinternationalsituationinsomeregions,anti-dumpingpoliciesofEuropeancountriesanddebtcrisisofEuropeanUnioncountries,stainlesssteelexportshavealsosloweddownsignificantly.Asaresult,thenickelandstainlesssteelmarketshowedasignificantdownwardtrend,resultinginalossoftheentirestainlesssteelindustryin2011Accordingtotheanalysisoftheinsiders,therearethreemainreasonsforthecontinuousdeclineofstainlesssteelmarketprice.First,thetightmacroeconomicpolicieshaverestrainedthedevelopmentofdownstreamusers,resultingintheshrinkingdemandofdownstreamusers;second,thepriceofrawmaterialshasfallen,andthepriceof"kidnapped"finishedmaterialshasfallen;third,inordertostabilizethemarketshareoftheirproducts,thesteelmillshavereleasedtheirproductioncapacity,whichfurtheraggravatesthecontradictionbetweensupplyanddemand.AlthoughChinahasmadepreadjustmentandfine-tuningofitseconomicpoliciessofar,itisstilldifficulttochangethetrendoflowinternationalcommodityprices.Thepriceofmainrawmaterialsforstainlesssteelwillcontinuetodecline.Althoughthisdirectlyrelievesthepressureofproductioncostofsteelplants,itmayindirectlysetthestageforthepriceofstainlesssteeltocontinuetodeclineinthelaterperiodAlthoughthesituationofstainlesssteelindustryin2011isnotoptimistic,comparedwith2010,thetotaloutputofdomesticstainlesssteelin2011isexpectedtoincreasebynearly7%,thecapacityhasreached20.4milliontons,thetotaloutputisabout12.5milliontons,thecapacityutilizationrateisonly61.3%,andtheconsumptionis10.53milliontons.Moreover,comparedwithotherdownstreammarketsofabrasivetoolindustry,suchasceramicindustry,stainlesssteelindustryisstillmovingforwardthoughitisdifficultIn2012,thedevelopmenttrendofstainlesssteelindustryin2012,theinstabilityanduncertaintyofworldeconomicrecoveryareveryprominent,andtheriskchallengesareincreasing.Atpresent,theeconomicgrowthofsomemajoreconomieshasdeclined,manycountrieshaveoutstandingsovereigndebtproblems,theinternationalfinancialmarketisinturmoil,theinflationpressureofemergingmarketcountriesisstilllarge,andvariousformsofprotectionismarebecomingincreasinglyfierce.Therefore,itcanbepredictedthattheglobaleconomicsituationinthefirsthalfof2012isstillnotoptimisticThedevelopmentofdomesticmacro-economywillhighlighttheworkingkeynoteof"seekingprogressinstability".Wewillcontinuetoimplementactivefiscalpoliciesandsoundmonetarypolicies;monetarypolicieswillcontinuetobeadjustedandfine-tuninginatimelyandappropriatemanner,andmonetaryliquiditywillbeacceleratedcomparedwith2011;supportforsmallandmedium-sizedenterpriseswillincrease,butGDPgrowthwillfurtherslowdown,andfixedassetinvestmentwilldecline.Therefore,itcanbepredictedthatthegrowthofhouseholdappliances,automobiles,railtransit,railwaysandotherfieldswithhighcorrelationwithstainlesssteelwillshowsignsofslowingdown,whichisboundtoaffectthedemandforstainlesssteelFortheoveralltrendofstainlesssteelmarketin2012,thecontradictionbetweensupplyanddemandandthepricetrendofrawmaterialswillbecomethemaininfluencingfactors.Londonnickelisalsoexpectedtodeclineinanorderlymanner,andthepricebottommayappearinthefirstquarterof2012;however,ifthereturnspeedoftheUSdollarisnotexpectedtobeideal,thebottomislikelytoappearinthesecondquarterof2012,andthelimitpriceisabout15000USdollars/ton.WiththedecreaseoftheoperatingrateofdomesticstainlesssteelplantsandthereductionofthepriceofferrochromeinthemarketsofSouthAfricaandJapan,ithasbecomeanindisputablefactthatthepriceofferrochromeinChinacontinuestodecline.Itisexpectedthatthehighcarbonferrochromeindustrywillfacetheindustryreshufflein2012,andthelowpointofthemarketisthesameasthatofLUNInickelIn2012,newproductioncapacityinstainlesssteelmarketwillcontinuetobereleased,whilenewsteelproductioncapacitywillmainlyfocusonlarge-scaleprivateenterprises,suchasqingshanyangjiangproject,SouthwestYunnanprojectandHuaguangLianyungangproject.Atthesametime,coldrollingandhotrollingprojectshavealsostarted,suchasBaosteelDeshenghotrolling,JiuquanIronandsteelcoldrollingproject,TaiyuanIronandsteelpipecoldrollingproject,etc.,andthecompetitionincoldrollingandBawillbemoreintensein2012.Itisexpectedthattheannualoutputwillreach14milliontonsandtheconsumptionwillbe11.79milliontonsin2012,andthegapbetweensupplysurpluswillcontinuetoincreaseInaddition,thestainlesssteelindustryisahighenergyconsumptionandhighpollutionindustry,anditalsofacestheproblemsofovercapacity,internationaltradeandanti-dumping,sotheindustrialstructureadjustmentisinevitableOfcourse,withtheimprovementofbuildingqualityrequirements,theincreaseofbuildingfunctionrequirementsanddifferentrequirementsforbuildingsindifferentregions,theapplicationquantityandqualityofstainlesssteelandstainlesssteelproductswillbeimproved.Inthefuture,Chinawillusemorestainlesssteelandstainlesssteelreinforcementininfrastructuresuchasbridges,expresswaysandtunnels.Inaddition,duringthe12thFiveYearPlanperiod,Chinawillintensifytheimplementationofthewesterndevelopment,theriseofthecentralregionandotherplans,andanumberofregionaldevelopmentplanshavebeenissued,whichwilldrivethecontinuousgrowthofdemandforstainlesssteelandstainlesssteelproducts.Inthelongrun,itisexpectedthatby2015,China'sstainlesssteelproductioncapacitywillbecontrolledat20milliontons,andthestainlesssteelproductionwillexceed190tons